MATH/MGMT 3502 Applied Probabilistic Models for Management Science
Fall Semester 2007

Course Instructor : Dr. Peh Ng --

Course Time : 10:00-11:40am TTh (Oct 21-Dec 15: 2nd 7.5 weeks)

Course Venue : Sci 1030

Semester : Fall 2007

Instructor's OFFICE: Sci 2330

Instructor's OFFICE HOURS: 10:30am-noon Mon & Fri, 1:00-2:30pm Tue & Thu, or anytime by appointment
(Unless I am out of town at committee meetings, I am either in my office, in class or somewhere on campus from 7:30am till about 8pm so if you need help, stop by my office or catch me anywhere on campus.)

Instructor's PHONE: 589-6318 or 589-6300

Instructor's E-MAIL: pehng@morris.umn.edu

Course Web Page: http://www.morris.umn.edu/~pehng/Mgmt

REQUIRED CLASS MATERIAL:
Class Notes & handouts

OPTIONAL CLASS MATERIAL:
Textbook: Quantitative Methods for Business (12th Edition) by Anderson, Sweeney, Williams.
To facilitate in-class discussions, it is recommended that you do some reading of the text on your own

PREREQUISITES: Math 1021 or 1101 or 1601 or 2601, Mgmt 2101, Mgmt 2201 or permission of instructor
and willingness to work hard, to spend at least 8 hours weekly on this course outside class, & to think analytically.

COURSE OBJECTIVES/PURPOSES: to help students to:

• learn the concepts of probabilistic models for Management Science by way of decision theory and game theory
• learn techniques of project evaluation and review
• learn the probabilistic models in waiting lines and queues
• be aware of the plethora of applications in inventory, production, scheduling, and manufacturing models which are beyond the scope of academia.

MATERIAL COVERED: Probabilistic Models in Management Science

Section 1. Short Review of Probability and Statistics.
Mean and variance or a data set; discrete and continuous random variables; (especially, the exponential distribution and the Poisson distribution).

Section 2. Decision and Game Theory.
Decision trees; types of decision criteria; basic statistical quality control.

Section 3. Project Scheduling.
Network diagram representations; critical path method (CPM); project evaluation and review technique (PERT); probabilistic considerations in scheduling projects.

Section 4. Queueing or Waiting Line Models.
Birth and death processes; Markovian or Poisson arrivals; M/M/k and M/M/&infin queues.

Section 5. (If time permits...) Inventory Models, as applications of the above topics.
Economic Order Quantity model, Economic Production Lot-size model, inventory models with shortages, Just-in-time (JIT) and Material Requirement Planning (MRP) models.

HOMEWORK:
There will be computer and written homework assigned and due on a almost weekly basis. At the end of the 7.5 weeks, students will be asked to present their work to the class.

EXAMINATIONS :
There will be one exam in the middle of the term and a second exam on the scheduled final exam day. All exams will be closed book/notes; any helpful information, if applicable, will be provided by the instructor.

PROJECT :
There will be a course project (on real-world applications of the topics covered in both 3501 and 3502) which consists of a paper and an oral presentation in class. See Project Handout ; and the evaluations for your project's written report ; and oral presentation for more information.)

ACADEMIC INTEGRITY and HONESTY:
Discussion of homework assignments among students aids learning and is encouraged. However, each student is expected to submit his/her own work. No two homeworks should ever be identical on any major part. No cooperation of any kind, or use of unauthorized notes, is allowed during examinations.
Cheating, particularly on examinations, hurts students who are honestly earning their grades by devaluing their achievements. It is every student's responsibility to help control academic honesty by reporting it to the professor whenever they see it going on.
Students who violate UMM's academic integrity and honesty code will face consequences accoridng to University Policies which include being expelled.

GRADING:

1. One mid-term exam - 100 points.

2. Second exam during finals week (Mon Dec 17 4-6pm) 150 points.

3. Course Project 100 points.

4. Homework (computer & written) - assigned almost weekly. 100 points

Policies on homework, project, and exams.

• Unless arrangements are made with the instructor prior to the due date of the assignments, late assignments are NOT accepted; even if you do NOT attend class on the day that homework is due, it is YOUR responsibility to make sure assignments get turned in that day and to make sure you catch up on the material missed, including new assignments. This is a fast paced course; if you miss class for a few days, then you need to talk to the instructor to see if you can catch up. Only legible and neatly written assignments will be graded.
• There will be NO make-up exams unless arrangements are made with the instructor PRIOR to the exams. And there is unequivocally NO such thing as a make-up project.

Course Grades

EARNED GRADE	IF TOTAL PERCENTAGE EARNED x is
A	90 <= x <= 100
A-	88 <= x <= 89
B+	86 <= x <= 87
B	80 <= x <= 85
B-	78 <= x <= 79
C+	76 <= x <= 77
C	70 <= x <= 75
C-	68 <= x <= 69
D+	66 <= x <= 67
D	60 <= x <= 65

All-University Interpretation of Grades

A & A-: achievement that is outstanding relative to the level necessary to meet course requirements.
B, B+ & B-: achievement that is significantly above the level necessary to meet course requirements.
C, C+,C-: achievement that meets the course requirements in every respect.
D, D+: achievement that is worthy of credit even though it fails to meet fully the course requirements.
S : achievement that is satisfactory, which is equivalent to a C- or better (achievement required for an S is at the discretion of the instructor but may be no lower than a C-).
F (or N) : Represents failure (or no credit) and signifies that the work was either (1) completed but at a level of achievement that is not worthy of credit or (2) was not completed and there was no agreement between the instructor and the student that the student would be awarded an I (see also I)
Academic dishonesty: academic dishonesty in any portion of the academic work for a course shall be grounds for awarding a grade of F or N for the entire course.
I (Incomplete) Assigned at the discretion of the instructor when, due to extraordinary circumstances, e.g., hospitalization, a student is prevented from completing the work of the course on time. Requires a written agreement between instructor and student.
For undergraduate courses, one credit is defined as equivalent to an average of three hours of learning effort per week (over a full semester) necessary for an average student to achieve an average grade in the course. For example, a student taking a three credit course that meets for three hours a week should expect to spend an additional six hours a week on coursework outside the classroom.

It is University policy to provide reasonable accommodations to students with disabilities. This publication/material is available in alternative formats to persons with disabilities upon request. Please contact the instructor or the Disability Services office, 589-6178, Room 362 Briggs Library to discuss accommodation needs.

PLEASE FEEL WELCOME TO SEE ME OUTSIDE OF THE CLASS, ANY TIME, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS, PROBLEMS, OR COMMENTS PERTAINING THE COURSE WORK.

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